 Bertrand Russell Quotes 366 |
Interest on capital is due to the existence of a certain amount of forethought -- but not too much. Suppose I have ￡100 which I invest at 5 per cent; that means that I am at least as pleased by the prospect of ￡105 a year hence as by the spending of ￡100 now. If I had infinite forethought, any rate of interest, however low, would suffice to induce me to invest my capital rather than spend it all at once. One may perhaps infer that, other things being equal, the more forethought people have, the lower will be the rate of interest, but it would take me too far from my theme to pursue such speculations further.
Source: Bertrand Russell: Human Society in Ethics and Politics, 1954, part II: The Conflict of Passions, chapter 3: Forethought and Skill, n.6
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When something predicted or foreseen by a famous person happens or comes true 30 or 50 years later, his or her foresight is praised. However, it is not uncommon for a person's predictions and foresight to be way off because of wars or major natural disasters (earthquakes, tsunamis, etc.) in that 30 to 50 year period. Is it then difficult to predict things in the distant future, but easier to predict in the near future? No, it is not. For example, it is easy to predict the Nikkei Stock Average five years from now, but difficult to predict the share price one month from now. If it were possible to predict the share price of a particular stock ten minutes from now, the majority of the public would invest in it. Then-Prime Minister Kishida encouraged the public to ‘invest’, but he should have said at the same time that people without money should not invest. It seems that Mr Kishida's glasses were fogged up. (Laughter)
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