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The advantages of successful war are doubtful, but the disadvantages of unsuccessful war are certain. If, therefore, the supermen at the head of affairs could foresee who was going to win, there would be no wars. But in fact there are wars, and in every war the government on one side, if not on both, must have miscalculated its chances. For this there are many reasons : of pride and vanity, of ignorance, and of contagious excitement.
Source: Bertrand Russell : Power, a new social analysis, 1938
More info.: https://russell-j.com/beginner/POWER10_090.HTM