If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance with his instincts, he will accept it even on the slenderest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way.
Source: Bertrand Russell : Mysticism and Logic and Other Essays, 1918, chapter 6: On the Scientific Method in Philosophy
The Philosopher Who Foresaw the Roots of "Cognitive Bias" a Century Ago
In every human being, two opposing traits coexist: skepticism and credulity. While we ought to see things as they truly are, it is always "easier said than done."
Nowadays, terms like "cognitive bias" or "confirmation bias" are frequently heard in the media. While these may seem like modern concepts, Bertrand Russell had already articulated their underlying mechanism perfectly as early as 1918:
"If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance with his instincts, he will accept it even on the slenderest evidence. The origin of myths is explained in this way." (Source: Mysticism and Logic and Other Essays, 1918, Chapter 6: On the Scientific Method in Philosophy)As Russell points out, we tend to thoroughly doubt any facts that do not align with our instincts or desires. Conversely, we leap at any material that justifies our own views, even when the supporting evidence is incredibly fragile.
In this world, there are those who embrace myths and emotions, and those who treat them with distaste. However, the real trouble lies in the existence of people (the "Category B" individuals) who exploit this human tendency to "want to believe" for the sake of politics or business.
When we reflect on the words and actions of today’s political leaders, it would be profoundly meaningful to analyze?with the kind of "scientific method" and detachment advocated by Russell?what biases they themselves hold, and what biases of ours they are attempting to exploit in these turbulent times.
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